Talkbet

Bad Bae't

For the second week running the golf gods were against us and despite trading down to 1.5x Keegan Bradley could finish only second to Sang-Moon Bae. It really does rub salt into the wounds that we've had selections come in the top 5 for the last couple of weeks just as we knocked the E/W betting on the head. Still, we'll take heart from another selection that ran well and move on to this weeks tournament.

Golf Return For 2013
 
Total Staked : 403 Points
Return -156 Points
ROI -39%

It seemed a wise decision to keep the football selections to a minimum yesterday as the posted punts went one from three. I'll still post these on an ongoing basis as there are still various leagues still playing throughout the Summer. Posted Punts +3.65 Points.

The M3 football selections were 7 minutes away from a very decent clean sweep but Catania couldn't hold on at Torino and the game ended 2-2. Nice to predict the draw in the West Brom game, it was never in doubt really and I should have also put something on the 5-5 before kick off, an obvious result really :o)

M3 Football Selections
Total Points Staked (Based on 10 points per selection) 1920
Total Return -96
Return On Investment -5%

Nice to also get another decent priced winner for the DB9 horse racing system yesterday:

DB9 Selections
Total Selections 9
Points Return +15.6
 
Vantage Selections
Total Selections 2
Points Return -2

I'm currently struggling a bit with the DB9 system selections in that a lot of the statistics are based on the current going. I never realised how often this changes throughout each day and whereas before I was happy to take the current going each morning I now realise that some more work may well be needed. I've managed to automate the system so that I can update the going remotely from a web page and then re-run the system but even that is going to prove time consuming on a daily basis, I might need to look at automatically parsing a web page on an hourly basis and then re-running the system if it detects a change in going.

 

Football Punts

Going with the following for this afternoon:

Swansea v Fulham
Draw HT @ 2.4

Southampton v Stoke
Draw HT @ 2.3

Inter v Udinese
Draw HT @ 2.4

 

Today's Bets

Apologies for the lack of posts this weekend and the late posting today, just been one of those weekends. If I have time later I might go through this afternoons football and see if there's anything I fancy, although like most others I'm very wary of punting to much on meaningless end of season games.

The M3 Football System has thrown up the following:

Southampton 4.33 1.75
Stoke 2.95 5.25
Draw 2.33 3.8
*** Back Draw at odds in excess of 3.8

West Brom 3.42 4.5
Man United 2.77 1.83
Draw 2.88 3.9
*** Back Draw at odds in excess of 3.9

Torino 3.0 2.1
Catania 2.07 3.6
Draw 5.44 3.2
*** Back Away at odds in excess of 3.6

 The DB9 Horse Racing System had a loser yesterday but has the following for today:

3:10 Ripon
1 Pt Win Spinatrix

3:10 Ripon
1 Pt Win Caranbola

I'm leaving the golf well alone, Keegan Bradley is nicely placed to win it and is now trading at evens although he has traded down to 1.52. None of the others in contention figure highly in my ratings so it's just a case of hanging in there and hoping Bradley brings it home. We were a little unlucky last week with Garcia and Lingmerth coming up against an in form Woods so maybe this week we can snag the winner.

 

DB9 Selection

Early start today so just a quick post with a DB9 horse selection for later:

Thirsk 3:25
Chooseday 1 Pt Win

 

I'll Tell You What, I'd Love It If We Beat Them, Just Love It...

Good start to the golf yesterday as Keegan (do you see my tenuous link there?) Bradley 3 clear after the first round and is now trading at just over 3's on the exchanges. I'm adding a couple more outsiders into the mix here, they're well regarded on my stats and have started the tournament well:

Patrick Reed
2 Pts Win @ 270

Ted Potter Jr
2 Pts Win @ 48

A nice winner as well on the horses as the DB9 system got it's first winner at a juicy Betfair SP of 16.5, the updated returns for the two horse systems are now as follows:

DB9 Selections
Total Selections 6
Points Return +10.5

Vantage Selections
Total Selections 2
Points Return -2

I'll also probably have the odd punt or two on the football this weekend. Funny how the media are desperate to keep some interest going in the Premiership as "Arsenal and Tottenham battle it out for 4th place and Champions League qualification". The truth is, noone outside of those two clubs could care less. Nothing against them and I'll probably watch and follow either of them as they play in Europe but it's not for the title and it's not for relegation so there's very little drama for the rest of us to be bothered with really. And on that note, I'd best sign off.

 

Horse Selection For 15:15

A rare bit of excitement as the DB9 system has highlighted a selection for this afternoon:

York 3:15
1 Pt Win Navajo Chief

 

HP Byron Nelson Championship Picks

Tricky field to pick through this week as my stats have highlighted Jason Day as a potential winner but at odds of 15 you have to commit a decent number of points to make the return worthwhile. Anyway, I've gone for 5 Points on Day and 3 Points on Keegan Bradley which leaves us plenty of scope to get involved with other contenders as the tournament progresses.

Jason Day
5 Pts Win @ 15

Keegan Bradley
3 Pts Win @ 22

Here are a selection of other players along with their current exchange odds that the stats have highlighted and I'll be keeping an eye on.

Vaughn Taylor  240
Greg Chalmers  120 
D J Trahan  630
Patrick Reed  480
Steve Flesch  1000
Pat Perez  100  
Matt Bettencourt 450
Ted Potter Jr  240 
Erik Compton  400  
Nicholas Thompson 480
John Senden  80
Chez Reavie  440
Joe Ogilvie  1000

 

Updates For The Various Systems

I can take a bit of heart this week with the golf predictions as we were pretty close to a monster win with our back of David Lingmerth @ 380 advised on Friday morning. I also mentioned him @ 1000 on Wednesday but I also mentioned a bunch of others so not much kudos there... To be fair, the initial excitment on Sunday morning of seeing your 380/1 shot now trading at less than 10/1 fades away as it slowly dawns on you that he still only has a 10% of chance of winning. And no, I didn't trade out.
Sergio was also nicely in with a shout but with the form that Woods was in in the 4th round you just pretty much knew what was going to happen, the markets said as much as well with Woods going odds on very early on on the final day. Anyway, a max loss for the week but happy enough with the selections:

Golf Return For 2013
 
Total Staked : 391 Points
Return -144 Points
ROI -37%

Just the one winner for the M3 selections recently although it was a well priced one so they're just flatlining really, which is quite apt considering they'll be switched off permanently in the next few weeks:

M3 Football Selections
Total Points Staked (Based on 10 points per selection) 1890
Total Return -145
Return On Investment -8%

The posted punts took a bit of pounding over the weekend although they're still in profit so no real damage done. It could have been so different if Fulham (available @ 4.8) had held on to their lead until half time against Liverpool. But they didnt so it wasn't.

Posted punts ongoing total +4.35 Points

The horse selections have been very quiet of late but as soon as the systems flag up any picks I'll post them up here. I've been working on a manual horse selection process recently, basically it displays via a web page stacks of data for each horse and race and leaves it up to you to select the 'winner', it's interesting scanning each race and forming an opinion on each of the entrants, although very time consuming it has to be said.

 

 

 

 

Sunday Football Punts

Nothing doing for yesterdays couple of punts, going with three today as follows:

Fulham v Liverpool
Fulham HT @ 4.8

Everton v West Ham
Everton HT @ 2.1

Parma v Bologna
Draw HT @ 2.5

 

Football Punt

Just the one more for me today I think:

Athletic Bilbao v Mallorca
Draw HT @ 2.4